The Analysis of Causality in Escape Clause Cases

Under Section 201 of the Trade Act of 1974, the so-called escape clause, a domestic industry that is seriously injured can obtain temporary relief if imports are the substantial cause of such injury. 'This paper develops a methodology that can be used to determine the change in a domestic industry's production as a result of changes in import supply, demand or domestic supply and so determine whether or not an industry is entitled to relief under Section 201. This methodology is illustrated by application to two recent Section 201 investigations.